Looking for an explanation
I've done a little analysis of the demographic information of several large cities in the east[1]. Baltimore has a high murder rate (as does Washington, D.C.) amongst cities with populations around 500 thousand. What distinguishes Baltimore from other cities is that our median income relative to the median income of the entire state is about 1:2. Newark, NJ has about the same ratio (but two-fifths of the population of Baltimore). No other major East Coast city fares as poorly relative to the environment that envelops it. New York City, for instance has a ratio of 9:10 with New York state and a murder rate that's a sixth that of Baltimore's .
The things that can't, of themselves, account for Baltimore's murder rate include overall population, and the poverty rate, which compares well with other large cities. Baltimore's 22.6% rate vs. Boston's 22.3%, New York's 19% and Philadelphia's 24.5%.
One aspect of Baltimore that is a relative strength is that poverty rates amongst Baltimore's African American population are at the median among these cities. Our 26% rate compares well to, say, Pittsburg's 38%, Chicago's 32% and Atlanta's 39%.
So something is different in Baltimore not amongst those who are in poverty, but, rather, amongst those who are earning a middle to lower middle class income. Maybe the weakness of the classes which provide a "bridge" between the upper middle class and those in poverty is causing a rupture in the usual perceptions of upward mobility. Not only perceptional differences but effective differences may exist in the actual mechanism of upward mobility[2]. This in turn leads to an environment of despair that becomes a breeding ground for addiction, leading to an intractable drug culture, and related murder rate.
Here are the kinds of shifts I think we should aim for to help Baltimore come more in line with the rest of Maryland:
1. Maintain roughly current population, but invest in increasing the income and education level of middle to lower middle class residents, with particular focus on opportunities for their children, thereby gradually pushing up the median income.
2. Invest in our best neighborhoods and housing to attract upper middle class residents who will substantially increase the tax base.
3. Make the city attractive to the creative class and the entrepreneurial class who can generate jobs.
4. Incentivize city-residency amongst those who work in the city but currently choose to live in the county.[3]
5. Begin to repair city-county, city-state divides that have been neglected for so long they have become accepted wisdom. First, we have to fess up to the fact that Baltimore is no longer the flagship city of Maryland. It hasn't been for decades, and we need the rest of Maryland to help us.
It might just be possible that when Baltimore's prosperity matches better with Maryland's prosperity, there will be an abatement of the psychic conflict that gives rise to the drug culture and the violence that goes hand-in-hand with that.
You can see plots describing the relationship of city/state income ratios and city populations to the murder rate here.
[1] Cities I have examined so far are Baltimore, Newark, Boston, Washington DC, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, New York, Yonkers, New Haven, Wilmington, Jersey City, Chicago, Atlanta, Charlotte and Jacksonville. Data at www.city-data.com and crime rates at http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0004902.html.
[2] There are structural realities of our era which make upward mobility more difficult than in the industrial era. Globalization is often cited and, with it, the loss of stable employment with better than subsistence income. The nascent service economy has yet to mature into something that can replace the security provided by manufacturing jobs for working people.
[3] Johns Hopkins along with the East Baltimore Development Inc. is using this strategy by combining their biotech developments with mixed residential and retail neighborhood development, hoping to attract biotech workers to live near where they will work.
The things that can't, of themselves, account for Baltimore's murder rate include overall population, and the poverty rate, which compares well with other large cities. Baltimore's 22.6% rate vs. Boston's 22.3%, New York's 19% and Philadelphia's 24.5%.
One aspect of Baltimore that is a relative strength is that poverty rates amongst Baltimore's African American population are at the median among these cities. Our 26% rate compares well to, say, Pittsburg's 38%, Chicago's 32% and Atlanta's 39%.
So something is different in Baltimore not amongst those who are in poverty, but, rather, amongst those who are earning a middle to lower middle class income. Maybe the weakness of the classes which provide a "bridge" between the upper middle class and those in poverty is causing a rupture in the usual perceptions of upward mobility. Not only perceptional differences but effective differences may exist in the actual mechanism of upward mobility[2]. This in turn leads to an environment of despair that becomes a breeding ground for addiction, leading to an intractable drug culture, and related murder rate.
Here are the kinds of shifts I think we should aim for to help Baltimore come more in line with the rest of Maryland:
1. Maintain roughly current population, but invest in increasing the income and education level of middle to lower middle class residents, with particular focus on opportunities for their children, thereby gradually pushing up the median income.
2. Invest in our best neighborhoods and housing to attract upper middle class residents who will substantially increase the tax base.
3. Make the city attractive to the creative class and the entrepreneurial class who can generate jobs.
4. Incentivize city-residency amongst those who work in the city but currently choose to live in the county.[3]
5. Begin to repair city-county, city-state divides that have been neglected for so long they have become accepted wisdom. First, we have to fess up to the fact that Baltimore is no longer the flagship city of Maryland. It hasn't been for decades, and we need the rest of Maryland to help us.
It might just be possible that when Baltimore's prosperity matches better with Maryland's prosperity, there will be an abatement of the psychic conflict that gives rise to the drug culture and the violence that goes hand-in-hand with that.
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You can see plots describing the relationship of city/state income ratios and city populations to the murder rate here.
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[1] Cities I have examined so far are Baltimore, Newark, Boston, Washington DC, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, New York, Yonkers, New Haven, Wilmington, Jersey City, Chicago, Atlanta, Charlotte and Jacksonville. Data at www.city-data.com and crime rates at http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0004902.html.
[2] There are structural realities of our era which make upward mobility more difficult than in the industrial era. Globalization is often cited and, with it, the loss of stable employment with better than subsistence income. The nascent service economy has yet to mature into something that can replace the security provided by manufacturing jobs for working people.
[3] Johns Hopkins along with the East Baltimore Development Inc. is using this strategy by combining their biotech developments with mixed residential and retail neighborhood development, hoping to attract biotech workers to live near where they will work.
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